Summer Storms Along Cold Front

The Weather Prediction Center Surface Analysis from August 13, 2013: 
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc2.shtml

D.C is squeezed between two strong cold fronts in the above surface analysis from the Weather Prediction Center as of 21Z August 13, 2013. Severe storms rumbled through the D.C. area around 0Z this evening a couple hours after the surface analysis snapshot. The most intense activity lasted less than an hour around D.C., but delivered brief heavy downpours. The meteorology of cold fronts is notorious for localized short duration intense precipitation. The rapid advancement of cold dense air along the front buoyantly forces warm air upward over the denser cold air mass to produce clouds along the thermal boundary. Precipitation falls ahead of the advancing cold front until the colder and drier air mass behind the front stabilizes atmospheric conditions.

Diagram source from the University of Illinois:
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/%28Gh%29/guides/mtr/af/frnts/home.rxml

Custom Weather Map Plot For 3Z August 9, 2013

This weather map was plotted as of 3Z August 9, 2013 (~11:00 P.M. EST) with no real dominant flow pattern except a stationary front draped across the continental United States. (seen in the attached link: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/bwsfc03.gif) My goal was to closely reproduce that surface image from the Weather Prediction Center. Plotting isobars (constant pressure lines) and isotherms (constant temperature lines) is no easy task.

 Link to original Weather Prediction Center Image: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/sfc03.html

2013 Tropical Atlantic Uncertainty

Today is August 1 and we are approaching the time of year that Atlantic Hurricanes tend to become more abundant. The average number of named storms for August 1 is 2 and we are already past that with Dorian as the 4th named storm of 2013. One topic that George Mason University researchers have been notorious for is the effects the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has on limiting the development of hurricanes. The yellow, orange, and red shadings in the image shows why any Cape Verde Tropical Cyclones would likely not survive with the SAL along the main storm tracks. Even though we are still above average for the number of named storms this year, that could change if the SAL lingers for a while. The Global Forecast System (GFS) model currently has no tropical cyclones modeled to develop through mid-August!

Image Source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitE&time

Tropical Cyclone Climatology source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#bac