2013 Tropical Atlantic Uncertainty
Today
is August 1 and we are approaching the time of year that Atlantic
Hurricanes tend to become more abundant. The average number of named
storms for August 1 is 2 and we are already past that with Dorian as the
4th named storm of 2013. One topic that George Mason University researchers have been
notorious for is the effects the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has on limiting
the development of hurricanes. The yellow, orange,
and red shadings in the image shows why any Cape Verde
Tropical Cyclones would likely not survive with the SAL along the main
storm tracks. Even though we are still above average for the number of
named storms this year, that could change if the SAL lingers for a
while. The Global Forecast System (GFS) model currently has no tropical
cyclones modeled to develop through mid-August!
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